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  1. Mercati Predittivi
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  3. When will there be significant shipping interruptions in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait?
Manifold Markets

When will there be significant shipping interruptions in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait?

One-OffPoliticaGeopoliticaMiddle East19g
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsSenza KYC
Previsione della comunità attuale
Manifold Markets
By 2026-04-15 0%
In testa tra 6 esiti
Previsori

14

Tipo di domanda

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 4 giorni fa

Obsoleto
29 mar 26, 11:4230 giu 26, 11:05

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità
Manifold Markets
By 2026-04-15
0%
Manifold Markets
By 2026-04-30
0%
Manifold Markets
By 2026-05-15
0%
Manifold Markets
By 2026-05-31
0%

Esito scelto

By 2026-06-154%

Regole

When will there be a significant reduction in shipping through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait?

Manifold Markets
  • Resolution Criteria
  • An option above will resolve to YES if, by the stated date (international standard date format), there is a reduction of 75% or more in all ships passing through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait for at least 7 consecutive days relative to the 7-day moving average for the prior year.
  • I will use data from IMF PortWatch to resolve the market.
  • Iran has currently restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in the wake of the war between Iran and the US and Israel, putting strains on world supplies of oil, fertilizer, liquefied natural gas and other important commodities.
  • The Bab-el-Mandeb Strait is another significant choke point in shipping.

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Regole

When will there be a significant reduction in shipping through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait?

Manifold Markets
  • Resolution Criteria
  • An option above will resolve to YES if, by the stated date (international standard date format), there is a reduction of 75% or more in all ships passing through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait for at least 7 consecutive days relative to the 7-day moving average for the prior year.
  • I will use data from IMF PortWatch to resolve the market.
  • Iran has currently restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in the wake of the war between Iran and the US and Israel, putting strains on world supplies of oil, fertilizer, liquefied natural gas and other important commodities.
  • The Bab-el-Mandeb Strait is another significant choke point in shipping.