Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?
1.1% (24h)GeopoliticaOne-OffMiddle East5g
PolymarketVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYC2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoProbabilità implicita attualeUnited States 12%-3.5%In testa tra 8 esiti
Qualita del mercato
73 / 100
Qualità mediaVolume 24h
8,5K €
Liquidità
126,5K €
Alta liquiditàBid / Ask
0.4% / 0.8%
Spread
100.0%
Spread ampioVariazione 7g
-1.8%
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 17 minuti fa
1 lug 26, 22:3531 lug 26, 23:59
Trend
Solo fondi simulati, nessun denaro realeNon è consulenza finanziaria
Esito scelto
United States12%
Trend del volume
$9.6k2 lug25g di dati26 lug
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
- For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman.
- Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.