Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by December 31?
12.0 pt (24h)GeopoliticaOne-OffMiddle East3m
PolymarketVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYC2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
US 32%+12.0ptIn testa tra 8 esitiCorretto per il margine: le quote grezze sommavano oltre il 100% e sono state normalizzate.
Qualità del mercato
74 / 100
Qualità mediaVolume 24h
4,9K €
Liquidità
38,5K €
Alta liquiditàSpread
2.0 pt
Spread moderatoCommenti
0
Variazione 7g
+17.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 3 minuti fa
26 ago 26, 22:17 UTC1 gen 27, 04:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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PolymarketRegole
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
- For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman.
- Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.