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  1. Mercati Predittivi
  2. Geopolitica
  3. US x Russia military clash by...?
US x Russia military clash by...?

US x Russia military clash by...?

0.8% (24h)One-OffGeopoliticaRussia / Ukraine6m
PolymarketPolymarketVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYC2% di commissione
Probabilità implicita attuale
December 31,
December 31, 5%-0.8%
In testa tra 4 esiti
Qualita del mercato

89 / 100

Alta qualità
Volume 24h

48,8K €

Liquidità

50,6K €

Alta liquidità
Bid / Ask

5.0% / 5.2%

Spread

4.0%

Spread moderato
Variazione 7g

-0.9%

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 7 minuti fa

28 mag 25, 22:1631 dic 26, 12:00

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità
December 31
December 31
0%
January 31
January 31
0%

Esito scelto

December 31,5%

Regole

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Russia between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between U.S. and Russian military forces.
  • Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify.
  • Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S.
  • MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage.

Mercati Correlati

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?

Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?

48,2K €
Sì: 1%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

16,8K €
December 31: 46%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?

U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?

14,8K €
Sì: 8%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

Will there be official peace talks involving both Putin and Zelenskyy before Aug 2026?

129,9 €
Sì: 19%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

Which country will build the first Military Space Station?

116,9 €
USA: 45.4%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

Will Russia conduct a nuclear weapon test on Novaya Zemlya archipelago by 2027?

65 €
Sì: 13.8%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS

Attivi in questi argomenti

BitcoinBTC$62,664.74+2.35%EthereumETH$1,650.73+1.66%SolanaSOL$65.16+1.67%DogecoinDOGE$0.085+1.78%XRPXRP$1.12+0.33%BNBBNB$595.52+1.68%

Notizie Correlate

Bitcoin price tumbles after Trump orders military response to IranCrypto NewsNo-win bets keep Iran regime change odds high as market eyes 2027Blockchain.NewsUkraine NATO Bid Doubt Surges: Polymarket Bets Narrow to NoBlockchain.NewsRussia Sanctions British Teen Over Crypto Sanctions ReportBlockchain.NewsRussia targets British 17-year-old for alleging digital assets were skirting sanctionsCointelegraphRussia targets 17-year-old Browder over A7A5 crypto findingsCrypto News

Regole

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Russia between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between U.S. and Russian military forces.
  • Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify.
  • Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S.
  • MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage.