PolymarketVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYC2% di commissioneProbabilità implicita attualeSì 7%-0.0%
Qualita del mercato
64 / 100
Qualità mediaVolume 24h
1,3K €
Liquidità
29,7K €
Alta liquiditàBid / Ask
6.0% / 7.0%
Spread
16.7%
Spread ampioVariazione 7g
-2.5%
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 6 minuti fa
19 giu 26, 1:0431 ago 26, 23:59
Trend
Solo fondi simulati, nessun denaro realeNon è consulenza finanziaria
Esito scelto
Yes7%
Mercati Correlati
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
20,7K €December 31: 41%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US x Russia military clash by...?
11,2K €December 31,: 6%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETRussia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
10,4K €December 31: 27%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
When will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine?
943,7 €Before 2025-01-01: 0%
MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill there be widespread fuel shortages in Moscow city before 1 December 2026?
687,1 €Sì: 74.4%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSIf Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?
502,2 €Sì: 15.3%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSAttivi in questi argomenti
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
- Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
- The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative.
- Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.