Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
Geopolitica
PolymarketChiusoVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYC2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoQuesto mercato è chiuso e in attesa di una risoluzione confermata.
Dati di risoluzione non verificati
Questo esito è inferito o non supportato da prove di regolamento di livello provider.
Probabilità implicita attualeDecember 31 100%+2.0ptIn testa tra 9 esiti
Qualita del mercato
49 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
20,2 Mln €
Liquidità
4,9 Mln €
Alta liquiditàBid / Ask
99.9% / 100.0%
Spread
0.1 pt
Spread strettoVariazione 7g
+9.7 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 94 giorni fa
Obsoleto28 feb 26, 14:4031 mar 26, 0:00
Cronologia delle Probabilità
December 3199%
April 3096%
April 15100%
June 30100%
May 15100%
April 7100%
March 70%
March 150%
March 310%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
Questo mercato è chiuso. Il trading simulato è disponibile solo sui mercati aperti.
Confronta le piattaforme· December 31
Ordinato per qualità del mercato, poi liquidità e volume 24h| Piattaforma | Qualità | Probabilità | vs riferimento | Volume 24h | Liquidità | Aggiornamento | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PolymarketQuesta paginaMigliore in assoluto | Bassa | 100% | — | 20,2 Mln € | 4,9 Mln € | 94 giorni fa | |
 Manifold Markets80% di corrispondenza · auto | — | 100% | — | — | — | 96 giorni fa | Apri → |
Disponibile anche su Manifold Markets
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by which date?
Chiusi
100%
100%
100%
+3 altri esiti
Previsione della comunità34 previsoriTipo: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSRegole
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
- A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
- This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
- Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
I dati di confronto sono solo informativi. I prezzi e la liquidità possono variare.
Mercati Correlati
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by which date?
2,4 Mln €July 31: 100%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
700,2K €July 18: 100%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
518,9K €August 31: 70%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US-Iran nuclear deal?
17,5K €Before Aug 1, 2026: 0%
KALSHI
KALSHI
Which leaders will leave office in 2026?
14,4K €Vladimir Putin: 12%KALSHI
KALSHI
Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
9,1K €Barack Obama: 6%KALSHI
KALSHIAttivi in questi argomenti
Notizie Correlate
Polymarket: US invasion of Iran odds jump to 23.5% after Jordan base claimBlockchain.News
Polymarket prices China–Japan clash at 7.5% after ICC dispute spotlights TokyoBlockchain.News
Polymarket lifts US-Iran invasion odds to 18.5% after blockade, strikesBlockchain.NewsPolymarket: Iran regime-fall odds dip to 9.5% despite escalation reportBlockchain.News
Polymarket: Hormuz traffic 'Yes' sinks to 1.15% after Trump strike threatBlockchain.News
US freezes $131M in Iran-linked crypto as Middle East tensions riseCointelegraphRegole
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
- A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
- This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
- Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.