PolymarketVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYC2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
8–9% 27.9%+0.5ptIn testa tra 7 esitiCorretto per il margine: le quote grezze sommavano oltre il 100% e sono state normalizzate.
Qualità del mercato
≤49 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
—
Liquidità
28,2K €
Alta liquiditàSpread
7.0 pt
Spread ampioCommenti
0
Variazione 7g
-3.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 14 minuti fa
2 set 26, 18:26 UTC7 nov 26, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Condizioni della piattaforma
Fonte: Polymarket
Queste condizioni sono informative; il trading simulato di CoinRithm segue regole proprie.
- Ordine minimo (quote):
- 5
- Incremento di prezzo:
- 1 punti percentuali
- Commissioni:
- Sì
Regole
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
- This market will resolve according to the percentage of the Black vote won by Republicans in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.
- This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.
- For purposes of this market, the terms "Black" and "African-American" will be considered synonymous.
- In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.
- In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.
Confronto tra fonti di previsione
Mercati aperti
US Politics
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep+2.0pt62.4%
- D-House, R-Senate-1.0pt28.7%
- Republicans sweep-0.5pt7.9%
+1 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 16,9 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 1,5 Mln €
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- 25 bps increase52.5%
- No change-1.0pt45.5%
- 25 bps decrease1%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+1.6pt65%
- October 31-4.0pt35%
- September 30-3.0pt8%
+17 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31-0.2pt4%
- September 30-0.6pt0%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 61 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 540,5K €
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No+1.0pt86%
- Yes-1.0pt14%
- Volume totale
- 59,7 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 539,1K €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio-0.5pt15%
- Ron DeSantis3%
+39 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 617,7 Mln €
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- What will Trump say during his United Nations meetings?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Florida Governor winner?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- US-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Texas Senate winner?
- Will Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per GOP Black vote share??
- Polymarket quota 8–9% al 27.9% al 23 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve GOP Black vote share??
- GOP Black vote share? dovrebbe risolversi il 7 novembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato GOP Black vote share??
- Polymarket liquida questo mercato come segue: The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
- Dove altro è quotato GOP Black vote share??
- La stessa domanda è quotata anche su Kalshi.