KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
Above 8% 82%In testa tra 6 esiti
Qualità del mercato
41 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
—
Liquidità
7,4K €
Liquidità mediaSpread
7.0 pt
Spread ampioDati di mercato
Aggiornato 15 minuti fa
16 set 26, 21:00 UTC6 nov 26, 16:59 UTC
Trend
Condizioni della piattaforma
Fonte: Kalshi
Queste condizioni sono informative; il trading simulato di CoinRithm segue regole proprie.
- Chiusura anticipata:
- Sì
- Tempo di liquidazione:
- 30m (indicativo)
Regole
If the Republican share of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 8%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The value is the percentage shown in the Republican (or Rep.) column of the aggregate Black row in the national U.S. House exit poll table.
- The primary resolution source is the CNN figure displayed at exactly 12:00 PM ET on November 6, 2026.
- If unavailable, CNN remains the primary source for 24 hours after that time.
- If it remains unavailable, use CBS News followed by ABC News through 11:59 PM ET on November 7, 2026.
- If the Republican share of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 10%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confronto tra fonti di previsione
Mercati aperti
US PoliticsKALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep+2.0pt62.4%
- D-House, R-Senate-1.0pt28.7%
- Republicans sweep-0.5pt7.9%
+1 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 16,9 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 1,5 Mln €
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- 25 bps increase52.5%
- No change-1.0pt45.5%
- 25 bps decrease1%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+1.6pt65%
- October 31-4.0pt35%
- September 30-3.0pt8%
+17 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31-0.2pt4%
- September 30-0.6pt0%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 61 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 540,5K €
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No+1.0pt86%
- Yes-1.0pt14%
- Volume totale
- 59,7 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 539,1K €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio-0.5pt15%
- Ron DeSantis3%
+39 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 617,7 Mln €
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- What will Trump say during his United Nations meetings?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Florida Governor winner?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- US-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Texas Senate winner?
- Will Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Midterms: Republican share of Black vote??
- Kalshi quota Above 8% al 82% al 23 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Midterms: Republican share of Black vote??
- Midterms: Republican share of Black vote? dovrebbe risolversi il 6 novembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Midterms: Republican share of Black vote??
- Kalshi liquida questo mercato come segue: If the Republican share of the Black vote in the 2026 national U.S. House exit poll is above 8%, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Dove altro è quotato Midterms: Republican share of Black vote??
- La stessa domanda è quotata anche su Polymarket.