PolymarketChiusoVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoQuesto mercato è chiuso e in attesa di una risoluzione confermata.
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Avviso sulla qualità dei datiDati obsoleti
Dati al 29 ott 2026, 13:06 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Probabilità implicita attuale
Top 10 99%In testa tra 4 esiti
Top 10 99%Qualità del mercato
≤49 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
13,3K €
Liquidità
6,3K €
Liquidità mediaOpen interest
3,4K USD
Spread
2.1 pt
Spread moderatoCommenti
0
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 13 ore fa
Obsoleto28 ott 26, 21:52 UTC1 lug 27, 03:59 UTC
Trend
Top 1099%
Top 598%
Top 197%
Top 397%
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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PolymarketRegole
On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed "Carbon," separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10).
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Google "Carbon" model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) holds a rank within the specified top ranks when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying model must be a Google AI model named "Carbon" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting.
- A model listed under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon, will qualify only if it is confirmed by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed "Carbon".
- Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model.