Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 60%
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173
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo28 nov 23, 22:46 UTC1 mar 31, 22:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will we get AGI before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill we get AGI before 2032?
Manifold MarketsWill we get AGI before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill we get AGI before 2029?
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PolymarketWill Elon Musk have a Neuralink chip implanted in his own brain by the end of 2029?
FutuurRegole
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being.
- Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can.
- It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.
- Resolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2031
- MOD EDIT (Nov 2, 2025 - @Stralor)
- This market uses In what specific year will we hit AGI? as its baseline.
