Will TSMC CoWoS capacity exit binding-constraint status before 2026-12-31?
RegolamentazioneOne-OffTecnologiaCina2mManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 25 ott 2026, 20:50 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 76.2%
Previsori
1
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 2 ore fa
Obsoleto4 mag 26, 20:22 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
In the US, will there be binding legislation or an executive order explicitly addressing AI risks by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill at least one U.S. state enact a binding statewide moratorium on new hyperscale data centers before 2027?
Manifold MarketsBy the end of 2026, will global crude steelmaking capacity be at least 2,600 million tonnes per year?
Manifold MarketsChina's primary aluminium capacity exceeds 30% benchmark energy efficiency by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Georgia regulators approve 4 more gigawatts of generating capacity?
KalshiWill any China-domestic AI chip reach ≥80% of NVIDIA H100 perf on a public benchmark before 2026-12-31?
Manifold MarketsRegole
Resolves YES if, on or before 2026-12-31, TSMC's CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) advanced packaging capacity is no longer the binding constraint on advanced AI accelerator production, per publicly accessible evidence.
- Public evidence sources accepted for resolution:
- TSMC public statement (earnings call transcript on SEC EDGAR equivalent / Taiwan Stock Exchange filings, or company press release) indicating CoWoS capacity meets or exceeds customer demand
- NVIDIA, AMD, or other major customer public statement indicating CoWoS capacity is no longer their bottleneck
- Public research reports from Epoch AI, CSET, or government statistical agencies on advanced-packaging supply
- The criterion is "no longer binding" — i.e., the marginal additional unit of CoWoS capacity does not produce a meaningful increase in available AI accelerator units.
