Will Trump fire a Nuke into Iran before 2027?
0.1 pt (24h)PoliticaOne-OffMedio OrienteSportCricketGeopoliticaPolitica USA1m
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 95.2%-0.1pt
Previsori
5
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
+45.2 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 12 ore fa
Obsoleto2 nov 26, 09:43 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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Manifold MarketsRegole
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to Yes if, before January 1, 2027 (11:59:59 PM UTC), the United States military, acting under the executive authority or direct order of Donald Trump as President of the United States, detonates a nuclear weapon inside the internationally recognized sovereign territory or airspace of Iran.
- This market resolves to No if Donald Trump leaves office, ceases to be President, or if no such detonation occurs before January 1, 2027.
- Resolution will rely on official statements from the U.S. Department of Defense, the White House, or confirmation by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) or United Nations Security Council, corroborated by multiple major news organizations (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press).
- Conventional strikes, cyber warfare, or covert sabotage of nuclear facilities do not qualify.
- The weapon must be an actual nuclear explosive device detonated inside Iran.
