Will there be sustained armed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea by end of December 31, 2026?
GeopoliticaOne-OffMiddle East3mManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 70.5%
Previsori
7
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 11 ore fa
Obsoleto19 apr 26, 08:53 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will armed conflict break out between Ethiopia and Eritrea by December 31, 2026?
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- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if there is a sustained armed conflict between the national armed forces of Ethiopia and Eritrea at any point between the market's creation and 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2026.
- Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
- "Sustained armed conflict" is defined as an ongoing engagement involving significant, coordinated military operations between the state forces of Ethiopia and Eritrea, lasting for at least seven consecutive days or involving more than 100 combat-related fatalities.
- Resolution will be based on credible, consensus reporting from major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC) and official statements from international monitoring bodies (e.g., the United Nations or African Union).
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will there be sustained armed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea by end of December 31, 2026??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 71% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will there be sustained armed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea by end of December 31, 2026??
- Will there be sustained armed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea by end of December 31, 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Will there be sustained armed conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea by end of December 31, 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Will a major new armed conflict break out in the Horn of Africa — involving any combination of Ethiopia, Eritrea, Sudan, or Somalia — before January 1, 2028?”