Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 25 ott 2026, 15:00 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 66.9%
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83
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 14 ore fa
Obsoleto20 apr 23, 00:21 UTC1 gen 30, 08:00 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
By 2027, will a political party whose platform centers on AI rights get at least 1% of the vote in a national election?
Manifold Markets(When) will there be a significant change to timekeeping in the US?
Manifold MarketsWill there be significant and successful effort to ban Kalshi & Polymarket in the USA before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a significant retraction to the AARO 2024 UAP report before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the SCOTUS hear a case about AI and copyright law before 2027?
KalshiWill SpaceXSI rename itself back to SpaceXAI by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegole
Will there be protests involving groups of at least 1000 participants calling for granting some kind of rights to any kind of existing AI system.
- The protest has to occur before 2030.
- Will there be significant protests calling for AI rights before 2030?
- Clarification: only majority serious/non-ironic protests count.
- At least 1000 protestors must seriously/non-ironically participate.
- I will decide based on reports of the news media whether participants are ironic or serious (eg if majority of media call it serious then it is "majority serious")
