Will there be significant and successful effort to ban Kalshi & Polymarket in the USA before 2030?
PoliticaOne-OffRegolamentazioneExchangePolitica USA3aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 26 ott 2026, 05:41 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 67%
Previsori
13
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 5 ore fa
Obsoleto4 ott 26, 18:30 UTC31 dic 29, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Regole
If both become illegal but you can still very easily bet on them through VPNs if you pretend you're from a random country where there are no regulations, that still resolves YES.
- Before 2030 = before 01/01/2030 midnight UTC.
- If ANY US citizen can bet on BOTH these platforms without using a VPN and whilst being located IN the US, this resolves NO.
- Update 2026-10-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - To resolve NO, any US citizen permitted to bet on both platforms must not need to meet criteria other than a reasonable age limit.
- Special status (such as being in Congress) or extraordinary hoops will not satisfy the criteria for a NO resolution.
- Update 2026-10-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If real money trading is replaced by play money that is convertible to real money in a roundabout way:
