Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 78.7%
Previsori
14
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 12 ore fa
Obsoleto30 mar 25, 18:54 UTC31 mar 28, 22:59 UTC
Trend
Asset Sensibili al Macro
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the US experience a recession during 2026?
Manifold MarketsRecession in 2027?
KalshiWill Canada's economy enter a recession by the end of Q4 2027?
ForecastExWill the Eurozone enter a recession before the end of Q4 2027?
ForecastExWill the US experience a deflationary boom before 2030?
Manifold MarketsThe US will experience stagflation before the end of 2026.
Manifold MarketsRegole
Resolves YES if there are two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth, with the starting quarter between the last quarter of 2026 and end of 2027.
- Otherwise NO.
- Resolves according to BEA data, 3rd estimate.
- See https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
- May be provisionally resolved based on BEA 1st estimate, but the final resolution will be based on 3rd estimate.
- In case BEA changes the way estimates are released or revised, resolves based on the latest official estimate as of 4 months after the end of the quarter.