Will the US enact binding pre-deployment evals with power to block frontier AI releases, before 2030?
One-OffIARegolamentazioneTecnologia3a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati obsoleti
Dati al 30 ott 2026, 03:10 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 51.9%
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1
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato ieri
Obsoleto6 set 26, 10:25 UTC1 gen 30, 05:00 UTC
Trend
Regole
Resolves YES if, before January 1, 2030, the United States enacts binding third-party pre-deployment evaluation requirements for frontier AI models, with legal authority to block release (federal statute or regulation with equivalent force).
- Voluntary commitments, guidance without blocking authority, or state laws without frontier-release blocking power do not count.
- Part of a set eliciting the joint distribution over frontier concentration, oversight policy, warning shots, and AI catastrophe.
- Conditional prices reflect correlated beliefs, not causal estimates — companion markets price the selection channels directly.
