Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 61.9%
Previsori
42
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 10 ore fa
Obsoleto25 ago 24, 09:02 UTC1 gen 27, 06:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
When will be the first crewed flight of the Lanyue?
Manifold MarketsIs Eric Berger right about how the Starliner saga will play out?
Manifold MarketsWill there be another Starliner flight test before the Starliner-1 flight?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026?
FutuurSpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketRegole
Resolves No if there is no second crewed Starliner Flight.
- Resolves Yes if Second Crewed Flight of Starliner takes Crew to ISS and brings them back on Earth safely, irrespective of delays.
- If problems arise such as Helium Leak or Thruster Malfunction, will still Resolve Yes if crew is brought home safe on Starliner.
- Update 2025-11-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve No if there is no second crewed Starliner flight by program shutdown (not just by market close date).
- Update 2026-02-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Creator plans to extend the close date.
Mercati aperti
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 103,1K €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Volume totale
- 57,4K €
- Volume 24h
- 57,4K €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 altri esiti
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 altri esiti
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Volume totale
- 817,9K €
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the next Starliner crewed flight be a complete Success??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 62% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will the next Starliner crewed flight be a complete Success??
- Will the next Starliner crewed flight be a complete Success? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will the next Starliner crewed flight be a complete Success??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves No if there is no second crewed Starliner Flight.