Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
Starliner returns uncrewed with minimal problems in the next month 100%In testa tra 4 esiti
Previsori
23
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 2 ore fa
Obsoleto9 ago 24, 21:51 UTC1 gen 27, 04:59 UTC
Trend
100%
0%
0%
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Is Eric Berger right about the future of Starship?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a successful orbital rocket launch from UK soil this decade? (Eric Berger prediction)
Manifold MarketsWill the next Starliner crewed flight be a complete Success?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
LimitlessLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketRegole
Based on this post:
- [tweet]Separate markets for each of the three clauses, plus one for all three of them being true.
- Operationalizations:
- "Starliner returns uncrewed with minimal problems": Minimal problems is somewhat subjective, but I'll interpret it as meaning there's nothing big and glaring that's reported right away.
- "the named outcome": Resolves when the mission flies, not when the contract is awarded. "with cargo" = no crew, more stuff in it than there was on the previous uncrewed demo.
- "Starliner-1": The next crewed Starliner flight, whether it uses the Starliner-1 designation or not.
Mercati aperti
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 103,1K €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Volume totale
- 57,4K €
- Volume 24h
- 57,4K €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 altri esiti
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 altri esiti
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Volume totale
- 817,9K €
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Is Eric Berger right about how the Starliner saga will play out??
- Manifold Markets quota Starliner returns uncrewed with minimal problems in the next month al 100% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Is Eric Berger right about how the Starliner saga will play out??
- Is Eric Berger right about how the Starliner saga will play out? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Is Eric Berger right about how the Starliner saga will play out??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Based on this post: