Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 96.7%
Previsori
21
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 11 ore fa
Obsoleto20 giu 24, 20:11 UTC30 giu 27, 05:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
PolymarketWill the next Starliner crewed flight be a complete Success?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Starship flight 14 happen?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Starship flight 15 happen?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill SpaceX test its HLS before 2027?
KalshiRegole
There are not currently plans for such a test.
- However, the Boe-CFT Crewed Flight Test has experienced problems, and there is speculation about another test flight before the first operational flight Starliner-1.
- Will such a flight happen?
- [tweet]Update 2025-11-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If there is an uncrewed "operational" flight named Starliner-1, this market will resolve No, even if it functions as another test flight in practice.
- The key criterion is whether the flight occurs before the Starliner-1 flight (by name), not whether it's operationally a test.
- If the resolution becomes unclear, the creator will seek an uninvolved second opinion.
Mercati aperti
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 103,1K €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Volume totale
- 57,4K €
- Volume 24h
- 57,4K €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 altri esiti
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 altri esiti
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Volume totale
- 817,9K €
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will there be another Starliner flight test before the Starliner-1 flight??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 97% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will there be another Starliner flight test before the Starliner-1 flight??
- Will there be another Starliner flight test before the Starliner-1 flight? dovrebbe risolversi il 30 giugno 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will there be another Starliner flight test before the Starliner-1 flight??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: There are not currently plans for such a test.