Will the leader of a nonwestern nuclear power make an extremely ASI-pilled public statement before 2031?
One-OffIARussia / UcrainaCinaGeopoliticaPolitica4a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 83.1%
Previsori
21
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 3 ore fa
Obsoleto12 gen 26, 08:07 UTC31 dic 30, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Barron Trump make a public statement about his father before the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump or Vance mention the "light cone" in a public statement before the end of the second Trump administration?
Manifold MarketsWill the reactor core of a nuclear power plant melt before EOY 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Microsoft successfully build a nuclear power plant before OpenAI claims to have AGI?
Manifold MarketsWill any country become a new nuclear power in 2026?
FutuurChina provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?
Manifold MarketsRegole
This market resolves YES if a leader of a nuclear power not canonically aligned with the West (China, Russia, India, Pakistan, or North Korea) makes a public statement before January 1, 2031 that frames superhuman AI systems as a grave threat to their nation's sovereignty, and expresses an implicit or explicit willingness to act decisively on the basis of that threat.
- This could include:
- Arguing that a rival's creation of ASI would likely undermine national sovereignty, either by loss of control or domination by an ASI-wielding rival
- Calling for international bans or severe restrictions on ASI development
- Framing ASI as comparable to or exceeding nuclear weapons as a threat to the state
- Threatening or calling for preemptive military action against ASI development
