Avviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 25 ott 2026, 20:28 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attuale
Sì 64.6%
Previsori
19
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 4 ore fa
Obsoleto8 apr 24, 19:51 UTC30 nov 48, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Global Average Temperature Oct 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp)
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ForecastExRegole
The increase in temperature will be calculated:
- a) taking NOAA-STAR satellite measurements of the temperature of the lower troposphere (see https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/mscat/) OR the most similar such data if this dataset is discontinued,
- b) calculating the slope and intercept of a least-squares affine fit of this data versus time (from November 1978 to November 2048),
- c) using that fit to calculate the change in temperature between 1978 and 2048.
- For reference, from Nov 1978 - Mar 2024, the anomaly has been 0.135 K/decade.
- The time elapsed has been 45.33 years.
