Previsione della comunità attuale
1.295 degrees Celsius or more 87.1%In testa tra 8 esiti
Previsori
5
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
+31.6 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 8 ore fa
Obsoleto1 set 26, 10:12 UTC14 gen 27, 22:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Global Average Temperature August 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp)
Manifold MarketsGlobal Average Temperature Sept 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp)
Manifold MarketsWill the arctic be ice-free for any period of time ("blue ocean event") before summer 2026?
Manifold MarketsConsecutive days of average temperature in San Antonio above 90°F - week of Sep 7, 2026
KalshiConsecutive days of average temperature in Oklahoma City above 90°F - week of Sep 7, 2026
KalshiConsecutive days of average temperature in Las Vegas above 90°F - week of Sep 7, 2026
KalshiRegole
Details of data is currently at https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
- with a txt file with the data at data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
- (or such updated location or updated version for this Gistemp v4 LOTI data)
- For this annual market, it is the J-D column for 2026 when that is shown after Dec 2026 data has been published.
- More options can be added but please keep these sensible.
- January 2024 might show as 124 in hundredths of a degree C, this is +1.24C above the 1951-1980 base period.
Mercati aperti
Space
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt88%
- OpenAI-1.7pt10%
- Google2%
+18 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,2 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 85,3K €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- Yes59.4%
- No40.6%
- Volume totale
- 153,6K €
- Volume 24h
- 39,2K €
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+3.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 altri esiti
POLYMARKETSpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
- October 3197%
- Successful splash down?84%
- September 30-5.3pt83%
+8 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 409,9K €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+1.3pt59.8%
- SpaceX-4.5pt38.1%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 altri esiti
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-1.0pt84%
- Above 9-27.0pt46%
- Above 10-8.0pt23%
+8 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- Next Grok Model (4.7+) released on?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Global Average Temperature 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp)?
- Manifold Markets quota 1.295 degrees Celsius or more al 87% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Global Average Temperature 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp)?
- Global Average Temperature 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp) dovrebbe risolversi il 14 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Global Average Temperature 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp)?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Details of data is currently at https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/