Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance?

Domande frequenti

Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance??

Manifold Markets quota Yes al 82.9% al 25 ottobre 2026.

Quando si risolve Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance??

Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.

Come viene liquidato Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance??

Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: BASELINE (2025 leader): The current leader as of Aug 2025 appears to be GPT-4.5 with ~90.2% on MMLU, with Claude 4 and Gemini 2.5 Pro at ~85-86%

Usa questo mercato nel codice o in un agente IA

JSON gratuito per questo mercato, senza chiave API:

Agenti IA: chiama pm_data_event sul server MCP di CoinRithm:

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude+2.4pt52.9%
• Gemini-2.9pt35.5%
• ChatGPT-1.1pt7.5%

+5 altri esiti

Volume totale

13,7 Mln €

Volume 24h

68,8K €

POLYMARKET

OpenAI announces bankruptcy by which date?

• 2029+1.0pt20%
• 2028+1.0pt16%
• 2027+1.0pt8%

KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Apr 1, 2027+2.0pt92.5%
• Before Mar 1, 202791.5%
• Before Feb 1, 202788.5%

KALSHI

OpenRouter AI token usage in October

• Above 675T tokens+16.0pt88.5%
• Above 600T tokens50%
• Above 650T tokens+33.0pt

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T+2.0pt31%
• $1.5–$1.75T-0.8pt19%
• $2.0–$2.25T-3.9pt16%

+7 altri esiti

POLYMARKET

OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?

• 2027-4.0pt56%
• 2026-1.5pt14%

+1 altri esiti

Volume totale

898,1K €

Volume 24h

41,7K €

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