Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeYES, and she will be the second Chinese citizen to walk on the Moon 35.9%In testa tra 4 esiti
Previsori
7
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 15 ore fa
Obsoleto22 ago 25, 03:06 UTC31 dic 30, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Which month will Starship HLS land on the Moon?
Manifold MarketsWill a human from any nation other than the United States land on the Moon and successfully return by the end of 2030?
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KalshiSpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketRegole
Resolution criteria
- This resolves on China’s first crewed mission that successfully lands taikonauts on the lunar surface (soft landing achieved; mere lunar orbit or aborts don’t count).
- Outcome is determined from official post-mission reports/broadcasts by CMSA/Xinhua/CCTV; if unavailable, reputable wire services (Reuters/AP) may be used.
- “the named outcome” if a woman is the first to step onto the lunar surface on that mission, per official timeline/coverage.
- “the named outcome” if a woman steps onto the surface after a male crewmate from the same mission has already done so.
- “the named outcome” if a woman is assigned to that mission but does not ride the lander and stays in lunar orbit.
Mercati aperti
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
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KALSHITop AI model in September?
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- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
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- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
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- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the first Chinese crewed mission to land on the Moon include a woman??
- Manifold Markets quota YES, and she will be the second Chinese citizen to walk on the Moon al 36% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will the first Chinese crewed mission to land on the Moon include a woman??
- Will the first Chinese crewed mission to land on the Moon include a woman? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2030.
- Come viene liquidato Will the first Chinese crewed mission to land on the Moon include a woman??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria