Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 26 ott 2026, 07:03 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 79.4%
Previsori
42
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 5 ore fa
Obsoleto12 feb 26, 20:12 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
Trend
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the AI bubble pop by X date?
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PolymarketWill the AI bubble burst by which date?
FutuurRegole
Resolves YES if, before December 31, 2027, at least three major financial news outlets (e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters, Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, New York Times) explicitly describe a sustained downturn in AI investment, valuations, or AI-related public stocks as an “AI bubble burst,” “AI crash,” or equivalent term primarily attributed to AI sector dynamics.
- General economic downturns not primarily attributed to AI do not count.
- Sustained downturn = A decline of at least 30% from a prior peak sustained for at least 3 consecutive months, in at least three major publicly traded companies widely recognized as primary beneficiaries of the AI boom OR a documented reduction in AI venture funding and valuations covering at least two consecutive quarters.
- Examples of public AI companies include, but are not limited to: NVDA, AMD, TSMC
- Update 2026-02-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the "sustained downturn" requirement:
- 3 AI stocks must decline at least 30% from prior peak for 3 consecutive months, OR
