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Will the AI bubble pop by X date?

Manifold MarketsSenza KYC

Previsione della comunità attuale

By 12-31-2025 0%

In testa tra 10 esiti

Previsori

72

Tipo di domanda

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 5 giorni fa

Obsoleto

26 ott 25, 11:3831 dic 27, 10:29

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Esito scelto

By 6-30-20263%

Puntata (USDT)

Regole

Will the AI bubble pop by X date?

For the purpose of resolving this market, I will define the AI bubble popping as a reduction in the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) closing price of 35% or more within a period of 10 consecutive trading days.
More formally, let pₜ be the closing price of MAGS on trading day t, and let pₜ₊ₛ be the closing price of MAGS on trading day t + s, such that 0 < s ≤ 10.
A market will resolve to Yes if
(pₜ - pₜ₊ₛ) / pₜ ≥ .35
is satisfied by the stated date.

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Regole

Will the AI bubble pop by X date?

For the purpose of resolving this market, I will define the AI bubble popping as a reduction in the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) closing price of 35% or more within a period of 10 consecutive trading days.
More formally, let pₜ be the closing price of MAGS on trading day t, and let pₜ₊ₛ be the closing price of MAGS on trading day t + s, such that 0 < s ≤ 10.
A market will resolve to Yes if
(pₜ - pₜ₊ₛ) / pₜ ≥ .35
is satisfied by the stated date.