Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 85%
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7
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 16 ore fa
Obsoleto11 mar 23, 17:20 UTC1 gen 45, 00:00 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Conditional on AI alignment being solved, will governments or other entities be capable of enforcing use of aligned AIs?
Manifold MarketsWill Emmett Shear's new company make important and central contributions to AI alignment?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketRegole
@EliezerYudkowsky has made the solid case that AI Alignment is sufficiently intractable & AI timelines are short enough that the 1st AGI will not be aligned with human values.
- (Note: My definition for 1st AGI[Artificial General Intelligence] is the first Artificial Intelligence that can match or outperform humans on all intellectual tasks) However, AI Alignment shouldn't only be a thorny problem for humans to solve, but also for the 1st AGI itself to solve too.
- It's possible that rapid take-off may be limited by the AI Alignment problem, as an ASI misaligned with the 1st AGI would be a far greater threat to it accomplishing its goals than humanity is.
- (Note: My definition for an ASI[Artificial Super Intelligence] is an Artificial Intelligence that outperforms the 1st AGI on all intellectual tasks by at least the same margin it outperforms humans) That doesn't necessarily mean we'd be safe from the 1st AGI even though it's misaligned because even though a rapid takeoff puts an AGI at risk from an ASI misaligned with itself, humans are also a potential risk as a source of AGIs or ASIs that are misaligned with the 1st AGI.
- This resolves true if;
- - The case in the title happens or something to that spirit
Mercati aperti
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume totale
- 224,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5K €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,3 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 344,9K €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the 1st AGI solve AI Alignment and build an ASI which is aligned with its goals??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 85% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will the 1st AGI solve AI Alignment and build an ASI which is aligned with its goals??
- Will the 1st AGI solve AI Alignment and build an ASI which is aligned with its goals? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2045.
- Come viene liquidato Will the 1st AGI solve AI Alignment and build an ASI which is aligned with its goals??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: @EliezerYudkowsky has made the solid case that AI Alignment is sufficiently intractable & AI timelines are short enough that the 1st AGI will not be aligned with human values.