Previsione della comunità attuale
No 56.9%
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22
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo13 giu 23, 18:27 UTC20 gen 34, 19:27 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will my abdominal wall remain intact for the rest of my life?
Manifold MarketsWill the solution to the AI alignment problem involve making ALL of Jose Luis Ricon's dreams COME TRUE?
Manifold MarketsWill the solution to the AI alignment problem involve making ALL of Alex "zhukeepa Zhu's dreams/wishlists COME TRUE?
Manifold MarketsWill the solution to the AI alignment problem involve making ALL of Isaak Freeman's dreams/wishlists COME TRUE?
Manifold MarketsSuperhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?
Manifold MarketsWill any top-20 US or Canadian brokerage publicly endorse an open investing-agent standard by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsRegole
I have spent about 2500 to 3800 hours on AI alignment since Feb 2022.
- This is a rough 75% confidence interval derived from a cursory inspection of activity data I have collected in that period (mostly browser and conversation history).
- This works out to around 5.0 to 7.6 hours per day, which seems a little high to me, but I cast a wide net for what counts (anything done with the intention of reducing AI risk: thinking, reading, planning, talking, executing subgoals), so I'm not surprised.
- If this seems off to you, let me know whether you believe it would be worthwhile to perform a more rigorous analysis, and what exactly that would involve.
- Resolution criteria:
- Resolves YES if I continue to be committed to AGI notkilleveryoneism (whether directly or indirectly) till the end of my natural lifespan.
