Previsione della comunità attuale
No 56.4%
Previsori
21
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 12 ore fa
Obsoleto13 giu 23, 18:27 UTC20 gen 34, 19:27 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the 1st AGI solve AI Alignment and build an ASI which is aligned with its goals?
Manifold MarketsConditional on AI alignment being solved, will governments or other entities be capable of enforcing use of aligned AIs?
Manifold MarketsWill Emmett Shear's new company make important and central contributions to AI alignment?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegole
I have spent about 2500 to 3800 hours on AI alignment since Feb 2022.
- This is a rough 75% confidence interval derived from a cursory inspection of activity data I have collected in that period (mostly browser and conversation history).
- This works out to around 5.0 to 7.6 hours per day, which seems a little high to me, but I cast a wide net for what counts (anything done with the intention of reducing AI risk: thinking, reading, planning, talking, executing subgoals), so I'm not surprised.
- If this seems off to you, let me know whether you believe it would be worthwhile to perform a more rigorous analysis, and what exactly that would involve.
- Resolution criteria:
- Resolves YES if I continue to be committed to AGI notkilleveryoneism (whether directly or indirectly) till the end of my natural lifespan.
Mercati aperti
SportsPOLYMARKETUS Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen
- Michelsen Total Sets: O/U 3.5+34.5pt100%
- Michelsen Set 3 Winner+45.5pt100%
- Michelsen Total Sets: O/U 4.5+70.5pt100%
+25 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 5,9 Mln €
POLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Barcelona17.9%
- Arsenal15.1%
- Bayern Munich13.2%
+33 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 24,5 Mln €
KALSHIHouston vs Philadelphia
- Houston+48.0pt91.1%
- Philadelphia-48.0pt8.9%
- Volume totale
- 2,4 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 2,3 Mln €
KALSHIUS Open Men's Singles Winner
- Carlos Alcaraz+1.0pt58%
- Alexander Zverev+4.0pt26%
- Ben Shelton+2.0pt9%
+45 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 24,6 Mln €
KALSHIBrace vs Sorribes Tormo
- Cadence Brace52%
- Sara Sorribes Tormo48%
- Volume totale
- 1,9 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 Mln €
KALSHIShelton vs Alcaraz
- Carlos Alcaraz-1.0pt77.2%
- Ben Shelton+1.0pt22.8%
- Volume totale
- 1,8 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 1,6 Mln €
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will I focus on the AI alignment problem for the rest of my life??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 56% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will I focus on the AI alignment problem for the rest of my life??
- Will I focus on the AI alignment problem for the rest of my life? dovrebbe risolversi il 20 gennaio 2034.
- Come viene liquidato Will I focus on the AI alignment problem for the rest of my life??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: I have spent about 2500 to 3800 hours on AI alignment since Feb 2022.