Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 71.4%
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56
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 4 ore fa
Obsoleto19 mag 23, 18:02 UTC1 gen 30, 00:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?
KalshiWill Blue Origin land an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship?
Manifold MarketsWill Blue Origin's first Blue Moon HLS mission successfully land on the moon?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket launch?
KalshiWill Starship reach Earth orbit before the Blue Origin Lunar Lander?
Manifold MarketsBlue Origin New Glenn launch in 2026?
PolymarketRegole
Both SpaceX and Blue Origin are planning to send demo landers to the moon, before their crewed missions for Artemis III and V respectively.
- Even before the official uncrewed demo landing Blue Origin is planning to send two pathfinder landers to the moon, in 2024 and 2025.
- These BO landers might not actually look like the Artemis mission lander.
- They will likely be the small "Blue Moon" landers, not the lander that got awarded the Appendix P contract.
- Nevertheless, these landers count for the purposes of this market.
- Starship's uncrewed demo landing is scheduled for 2024, according to NASA's timeline.
Mercati aperti
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 10, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $74,750 or above99%
- $73,750 or above99%
- $74,500 or above99%
+77 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,1 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 1,1 Mln €
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 160-179+19.0pt57%
- 180-199-5.5pt35%
- 200-219-6.8pt5%
+23 altri esiti
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $69,000 or above99%
- $69,500 or above98%
- $68,500 or above98%
+47 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 319,9K €
KALSHIWhen will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Before April 2027+7.0pt68.3%
- Before March 2027-3.0pt19.2%
- Before February 2027+2.0pt8.3%
+2 altri esiti
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 10, 2026?
- New York City+68.0pt99%
- Boston+46.0pt99%
- Oklahoma City+11.0pt99%
+19 altri esiti
- Volume totale
LIMITLESSAmazon (AMZN) Up or Down - Daily
- No50.6%
- Yes49.4%
- Volume totale
- 217,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 215,2K €
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Starship land on the moon before Blue Origin does??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 71% al 10 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Starship land on the moon before Blue Origin does??
- Will Starship land on the moon before Blue Origin does? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2030.
- Come viene liquidato Will Starship land on the moon before Blue Origin does??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Both SpaceX and Blue Origin are planning to send demo landers to the moon, before their crewed missions for Artemis III and V respectively.