Will Starship have a 99% success rate as of its 500th payload-carrying launch?
TecnologiaOne-OffSpazio5a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
Sì 60%
Sì 60%Previsori
29
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 14 ore fa
Obsoleto4 gen 24, 02:01 UTC2 gen 32, 06:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will SpaceX's Artemis refuelling launches have a 100% landing success rate?
Manifold MarketsWhen will housekeeping be fully automated with 99% success rate per house service?
Manifold MarketsIn 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be humanity’s expansion rate as a fraction of c?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketHow many launches will SpaceX have in October?
KalshiRegole
Of launches carrying non-dummy payloads, whether SpaceX internal payloads such as Starlink satellites or customer payloads, will the first 500 launches have a 99% success rate or higher? That is, will at least 495 of them deliver their payload to the intended destination?
- IFT-1 and IFT-2 do not qualify, so the count has not started yet.
- Future "test launches" will be counted or not based on whether they carried a payload intended for some useful application.
- (The Falcon Heavy test launch would not be included under this definition.) Cargo, crew, and propellant cargo for refueling missions will all be included.
- Accidents resulting in complete loss of payload during pre-launch operations (eg AMOS-6) will count as failures for this count.
- If the SpaceX Starship is retired before this question resolves, it will resolve based on whether the success rate at retirement is >= 99%.