Will SpaceX's Artemis refuelling launches have a 100% landing success rate?
TecnologiaOne-OffSpazio8a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 62.7%
Previsori
22
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 11 ore fa
Obsoleto25 mar 24, 08:19 UTC1 gen 35, 12:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Artemis program lunar landing success discourages chinese moon landing ambitions?
Manifold MarketsWill Starship have a 99% success rate as of its 500th payload-carrying launch?
Manifold MarketsWhen will housekeeping be fully automated with 99% success rate per house service?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketHow many launches will SpaceX have in October?
KalshiHow many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
PolymarketRegole
SpaceX is contracted to provide a lunar landing vehicle, planned to be a variant of Starship, for the Artemis program that will return humans to the moon.
- Delivering such a vehicle to the moon will require multiple in-orbit propellant refillings in order to provide sufficient delta v.
- Will all Starship-SuperHeavy launches intended to deliver propellant to a vehicle in orbit for this purpose have a successful landing of both the booster and ship?
- A ground landing, landing on a barge, being caught by the launch tower, or anything else that brings a ship or booster intact to a resting position on something solid and not airborne counts as a successful landing.
- A soft "landing" in a body of water does not count.
- A catch by an aircraft does not count until the aircraft lands.