Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 62.7%
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22
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 9 ore fa
Obsoleto25 mar 24, 08:19 UTC1 gen 35, 12:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Artemis 3 be a crewed moon landing?
Manifold MarketsArtemis program lunar landing success discourages chinese moon landing ambitions?
Manifold MarketsMLB: Highest ABS Challenge Success Rate (Team)
PolymarketWill Starship have a 99% success rate as of its 500th payload-carrying launch?
Manifold MarketsHuman moon landing in 2026?
PolymarketHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
KalshiRegole
SpaceX is contracted to provide a lunar landing vehicle, planned to be a variant of Starship, for the Artemis program that will return humans to the moon.
- Delivering such a vehicle to the moon will require multiple in-orbit propellant refillings in order to provide sufficient delta v.
- Will all Starship-SuperHeavy launches intended to deliver propellant to a vehicle in orbit for this purpose have a successful landing of both the booster and ship?
- A ground landing, landing on a barge, being caught by the launch tower, or anything else that brings a ship or booster intact to a resting position on something solid and not airborne counts as a successful landing.
- A soft "landing" in a body of water does not count.
- A catch by an aircraft does not count until the aircraft lands.
Mercati aperti
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 8pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 944,1K €
- Volume 24h
- 721,8K €
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-22.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-8.0pt1%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,442.97 target
- No73%
- Yes27%
- Volume totale
- 620K €
- Volume 24h
- 536K €
KALSHIGuyana Amazon Warriors vs Antigua And Barbuda Falcons
- Guyana Amazon Warriors+4.0pt66.3%
- Antigua And Barbuda Falcons-3.0pt33.7%
- Volume totale
- 514,9K €
- Volume 24h
- 496,9K €
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+48.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 428,7K €
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-3.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-44.0pt1%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- BTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- BTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- SpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will SpaceX's Artemis refuelling launches have a 100% landing success rate??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 63% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will SpaceX's Artemis refuelling launches have a 100% landing success rate??
- Will SpaceX's Artemis refuelling launches have a 100% landing success rate? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2035.
- Come viene liquidato Will SpaceX's Artemis refuelling launches have a 100% landing success rate??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: SpaceX is contracted to provide a lunar landing vehicle, planned to be a variant of Starship, for the Artemis program that will return humans to the moon.