Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 80.4%
Previsori
15
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 12 ore fa
Obsoleto6 ago 26, 02:45 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will every single gorosei turn out to be stronger than Kaido?
Manifold MarketsWhat methods do you use to maintain strict 1% to 2% risk rules on every single setup?
Manifold MarketsWill any country leave the 1967 protocol of the Geneva convention on refugees by dec 31st 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill another "ChatGPT moment" or AI panic happen before an AI bust?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegole
Follow up to @/ZviMowshowitz/will-something-happen-this-week-in
- Something happening is hereby defined as Zvi making a dedicated blogpost about said AI-related event, similar to OpenAI's Unreleased Model Astra Solves Ten Major Open Mathematics Problems or Further Developments About Internal AI Models Hacking Things, rather than just mentioning it in the regularly-scheduled AI posts.
- Something like The Three AI Pills won't count because its not about a specific event.
- Each week will resolve to "something happened" if: 1) An AI-related event happened that week 2) Zvi made a dedicated post about said event within 14 days of it happening So i.e. if something happens on Aug 12th, it's OK if the post about it comes out any time on or before Aug 26th.
- Market will resolve based off the spirit of the stated criteria, various technicalities won't count.
- The intent is to see whether we're about to approach a "singularity of AI news" where something keeps happening every single week.