Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 68.3%
No 68.3%Previsori
66
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo3 dic 22, 16:51 UTC1 gen 29, 05:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Top Open Source AI this week
KalshiUS government bans an open source AI model in 2026?
PolymarketWill the U.S. ban any open-source AI model in 2026?
KalshiWill open-source AI remain at least one year behind proprietary AI? (ACX, AI 2027 #4)
Manifold MarketsWill it take <=12 months for open-source AI forecasting to go from consistently worse than humans to broadly superhuman?
Manifold MarketsWill the US and/or China ban at least two open-source AI models before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRegole
In total output, real-world use, plus prestige (open labs attracting the best talent)
- PROB resolution--2022 would have resolved ~70-80% YES
- Based on informed (and uninformed) comments, search trends, random Twitter hive minding, etc.