Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 96.7%
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Obsoleto11 giu 24, 16:41 UTC2 gen 27, 07:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Netflix offer a basic subscription tier whose catalogue consists predominantly of AI-generated content by EOY 2036?
Manifold MarketsWill the EU regulate geo-blocking of copyright protected content by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill vice.com end up deleting > 50% of their pre-existing online content by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI pay a tort claim with more than $1 million in damages before 2028?
KalshiWill OpenAI pay compensation to people who their AIs "defame"?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegole
Will OpenAI make a deal to pay a major science publisher such as Elsevier for explicit access / training rights on their papers, before the end of 2025?
- Closes at end of 2026 to allow for a one-year lag in when we learn about it.
- Resolves YES if such a deal has already taken place.
- Vide this minor difference of guesses between myself (Yudkowsky) and Sabine Hossenfelder.