Will "Only Law Can Prevent Extinction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
One-OffIA1aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 53%
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Aggiornato 15 ore fa
Obsoleto13 apr 26, 23:16 UTC1 feb 28, 00:00 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will "International Law Cannot Prevent Extinction E..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
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Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegole
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Only Law Can Prevent Extinction is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Mercati aperti
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume totale
- 224,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5K €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,3 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 344,9K €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will "Only Law Can Prevent Extinction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 53% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will "Only Law Can Prevent Extinction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Will "Only Law Can Prevent Extinction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 febbraio 2028.
- Come viene liquidato Will "Only Law Can Prevent Extinction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.