Will "International Law Cannot Prevent Extinction E..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
One-OffPolitica1aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 85.7%
Previsori
2
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 23 minuti fa
15 mag 26, 09:09 UTC1 feb 28, 00:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will "Only Law Can Prevent Extinction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsU.S. gov/any American placed on trial in international court for violation of international law relating to war in Iran?
Manifold MarketsTexas Senate winner?
Kalshi2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
KalshiWho will control the House?
KalshiWhich party will win the House in 2026?
PolymarketRegole
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post International Law Cannot Prevent Extinction Either is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
