Will Norway announce a referendum about joining EU during Trumps Second Term (2025–2029)?
Politica commercialeOne-OffElezioneGeopoliticaEuropaPolitica USAPolitica2a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 91%
No 91%Previsori
15
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo2 feb 25, 20:56 UTC1 feb 29, 22:59 UTC
Trend
Regole
Background Norway has held two referendums on EU membership (1972 and 1994), both resulting in rejection.
- While Norway maintains close ties with the EU through the European Economic Area (EEA) agreement, recent polls show increasing support for EU membership, with 35.3% in favor according to recent surveys.
- This can however change quickly if e.g. Norway falls in the middle of a trade war or geographical tension between the EU and the US.
- Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if Norway's government officially announces a referendum on EU membership between January 20, 2025 (the start of what would have been Trump's second term) and January 20, 2029 (the end of what would have been Trump's second term).
- The market will resolve NO if no such announcement is made during this period.
- For clarity:
