Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 76.8%
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Aggiornato 28 minuti fa
2 nov 22, 19:43 UTC2 dic 29, 05:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will level 4 self-driving cars be generally available in the US before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill any USA state ban self driving cars by the end of 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill self-driving cars become the primary mode of transportation in major US cities by 2030?
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Nov 1, 2026 at 5pm EST?
KalshiElon Musk # tweets October 27 - November 3, 2026?
PolymarketRegole
At the end of 2029, I will make an assessment of the total number of 4-wheel cars in the US, whether they be owned or leased by individuals, or whether they are still parts of experimental fleets from self-driving car companies.
- I will try to determine the total number of such cars that use some form of LIDAR, and if more than half do, this resolves YES.
- Otherwise, it resolves NO.
- Update for detail: What I am going for here is the sort of vehicles that Tesla, Waymo, Cruise etc. are making.
- Vehicles that are ostensibly designed to drive themselves (even if in terms of software, they might not be able to do that yet with 100% reliability).
- In terms of the level system, this maps on to about L3 and above.