Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeOther harms 100%In testa tra 3 esiti
Previsori
12
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 13 ore fa
Obsoleto21 mar 26, 01:22 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Insider Trading Result in Any Verified Harm Before 2027?
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Manifold MarketsRegole
From now until the end of 2026, will prediction market manipulation of any sort result in verified harm? Market manipulation requires traders with invested stakes in a market attempting to sway the outcome of the market.
- A commonly cited example are supposed "assassination markets" which could result in traders committing murder in order to win a bet.
- This is one way "the named outcome" could resolve.
- This market is a twin to this market on Insider Trading harms.
- The primary difference between the two is that Insider Trading denotes important figures involved with the resolution in some manner, trading in accordance.
- By contrast, Market Manipulation is done by random traders, who can be reasonably presumed at the time of market creation to have little to no relevant sway on the resolution.