Will Manifold implement "resolves-to-multiple" Multiple Choice markets before 2027?
One-OffTecnologia2mManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 25 ott 2026, 18:26 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 82.9%
Previsori
4
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 21 minuti fa
1 nov 25, 02:44 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
When will I create a PR to allow resolving options in multiple-choice markets to NO?
Manifold MarketsWhat causes Manifold Love to fail? (Resolves to multiple answers)
Manifold MarketsWhich Proofnik will get the "Trustworthy. ish." badge next? [now with the good multiple-choice market type]
Manifold MarketsWhen will the ability to allow resolving options in multiple-choice markets to NO be added?
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Oct 25, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiBTC price on Oct 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiRegole
This refers to the Multiple Choice market type which maintains a total percentage across all options, not the Set type.
- To enable easier trading on markets like "Who will be in the top 5" or "Which of these 10 will be selected", it would be possible to set up a market with enough Yes shares that 10 separate answers could all resolve to 100%.
- The new market structure must improve capital efficiency compared to the existing structure of "All 5 resolve to 20% each" that people sometimes do.
- I'm the final arbiter of whether something counts.
- Resolves Yes if Manifold implements this before 2027 and it goes live long enough for at least one market to be created.
- Resolves No otherwise.
