Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeBefore 2050 60%In testa tra 11 esiti
Previsori
12
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 13 ore fa
Obsoleto20 set 25, 16:40 UTC31 dic 28, 17:31 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
When will I create a PR to allow resolving options in multiple-choice markets to NO?
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PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRegole
When I refer to a "multiple-choice market", I mean one where the probability of all choices always add up to 100%.
- This also includes at least some forms of date and numeric markets.
- Right now, all mana invested in this type of market remains tied up until the winning choice has been selected.
- It would be far more optimal for prediction accuracy and mana management if guaranteed-wrong options could be resolved NO as they become guaranteed-wrong.
- The appropriate date ranges in this market will resolve YES at the time that a change implementing this gets deployed on the site.
- I may bet YES in this market in order to incentivize myself to accomplish this, but I will not bet NO (beyond selling YES shares).
