Quali sono le probabilità attuali per When will I create a PR to allow resolving options in multiple-choice markets to NO??

Manifold Markets quota Before 2050 al 56.7% al 27 ottobre 2026.

When will I create a PR to allow resolving options in multiple-choice markets to NO?

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibrato

Previsione della comunità attuale

Before 2050 56.7%

In testa tra 11 esiti

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Variazione 7g

0.0 pts

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 15 ore fa

Obsoleto

16 set 25, 17:22 UTC2 gen 27, 18:06 UTC

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Regole

When I refer to a "multiple-choice market", I mean one where the probability of all choices always add up to 100%.

This also includes at least some forms of date and numeric markets.
Right now, all mana invested in this type of market remains tied up until the winning choice has been selected.
It would be far more optimal for prediction accuracy and mana management if guaranteed-wrong options could be resolved NO as they become guaranteed-wrong.
A "PR" refers to a GitHub Pull Request, and it is the mechanism by which code changes to manifold are currently proposed.
This market will resolve based on whether/when I submit an as-described change to Manifold, regardless of whether it's accepted or whether the exact mechanism is a GitHub PR.