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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 5 ore fa
Obsoleto1 gen 26, 14:24 UTC31 dic 30, 23:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Kevin Buzzard successfully fulfill his grant specs of formalizing Fermat's Last Theorem in Lean within 5 years?
Manifold MarketsWill Terence Tao write a paper with Lean code in it during the 2026 calendar year?
Manifold MarketsWhich theorems will be officially formally proven in Lean by the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiHow many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026?
KalshiAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
PolymarketRegole
This question resolves based on the total number of lines of code (LOC) in the Lean mathlib repository.
- As of late 2025, mathlib contains approximately 2.1 million lines of code across roughly 8,000 files.
- Over the past two years, growth has been approximately linear, which (if extrapolated) would not reach 10 million LOC by 2030.
- Therefore, a “Yes” outcome implies a substantial acceleration in the rate of formalization, potentially driven by improved tooling, automation, or AI-assisted proof generation.
- Resolution criterion: This question resolves Yes if the official mathlib statistics report more than 10,000,000 total lines of code at any point on or before December 31, 2030.
- Otherwise, it resolves No.
Mercati aperti
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 8pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
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- 88° to 89°-22.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-8.0pt1%
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KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,442.97 target
- No73%
- Yes27%
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- Volume 24h
- 536K €
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KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+48.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 altri esiti
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KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-3.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-44.0pt1%
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Lean mathlib contain more than 10 million lines of code by 2030??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 67% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Lean mathlib contain more than 10 million lines of code by 2030??
- Will Lean mathlib contain more than 10 million lines of code by 2030? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2030.
- Come viene liquidato Will Lean mathlib contain more than 10 million lines of code by 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: This question resolves based on the total number of lines of code (LOC) in the Lean mathlib repository.