Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 98.4%
Previsori
25
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 12 ore fa
Obsoleto29 ago 23, 08:23 UTC1 gen 30, 07:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
PolymarketWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Manifold MarketsIf the US confirms aliens exist, will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Jesus Christ return before 2027
Manifold MarketsWho will the next Pope be?
KalshiWhat countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?
KalshiRegole
Resolves YES if, before the start of 2030 (pacific time), the pope confirms that Jesus has returned.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- May resolve N/A if there is no pope and, in my judgement, if there were a pope he might confirm that Jesus has returned.
- Market idea from https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/mantic-monday-82823/comment/39215917
- [link preview]Update 2025-05-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The Pope's confirmation must specifically refer to the Second Coming of Christ for the market to resolve YES.
- If the Pope confirms the Second Coming of Christ has occurred, this would resolve YES.
Mercati aperti
ReligionPOLYMARKETWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?
- No99%
- Yes1%
- Volume totale
- 56,4 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 13,3K €
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No75%
- Yes25%
- Volume totale
- 6,6K €
- Volume 24h
- 5,6K €
KALSHIWho will the next Pope be?
- Pietro Parolin5%
- Luis Antonio Tagle5%
- Matteo Zuppi4%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 118K €
- Volume 24h
- 64,5 €
POLYMARKETWill the Catholic Church publicly excommunicate anyone else in 2026?
- No+1.5pt89.1%
- Yes-1.5pt10.9%
- Volume totale
- 798,3 €
- Volume 24h
- —
POLYMARKETVatican III in 2026?
- No-0.1pt91%
- Yes+0.1pt9%
- Volume totale
- 8,9 €
- Volume 24h
- —
MANIFOLD MARKETSCatholic Church in Germany ordains women before Christmas 2028?
- No85.7%
- Yes14.3%
- Volume totale
- 793,6 €
- Volume 24h
- —
- Restrictions on the use of the Traditional Latin Mass in the Catholic Church: loosened in 2026?
- Will the Catholic and Eastern Orthodox Churches reconcile before 2050?
- Will membership in the LDS church decline YoY in any year between now and 2030
- Will @Austin Chen still believe in God at the end of 2026?
- Will there be a trend spike for the term "Animism" before 2035?
- Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2028
- Scientology loses IRS Tax-exempt status
- Will Joe Rogan convert to Islam by the end of 2030?
- Will Jesus Christ return in 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Jesus Christ return by 2030 (according to the pope)??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 98% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Jesus Christ return by 2030 (according to the pope)??
- Will Jesus Christ return by 2030 (according to the pope)? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2030.
- Come viene liquidato Will Jesus Christ return by 2030 (according to the pope)??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves YES if, before the start of 2030 (pacific time), the pope confirms that Jesus has returned.