Will Jerome Powells Sucessor cut federal interest rates to 1% or lower?
BlackRockOne-OffFedPoliticaBanche centraliMacro ed economia3a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 93.5%
Previsori
19
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 5 ore fa
Obsoleto12 gen 26, 01:55 UTC15 mag 30, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in October 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?
ForecastExWill the Fed raise the rate 25bps in October 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?
ForecastExWill the Fed leave the rate unchanged in December 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?
ForecastExECB Interest Rates: October 2026
PolymarketWill the Fed raise the rate 25bps in December 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?
ForecastExECB Interest Rates: December 2026
PolymarketRegole
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if the Federal Reserve's federal funds rate target is set to 0.00% (or a range with 0% as the lower bound, such as 0.00%-0.25%) at any point during the tenure of Jerome Powell's successor as Federal Reserve Chair.
- Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the Federal Reserve Board at https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/.
- The market resolves NO if the successor's tenure ends without the rate ever reaching 0%.
- Powell's term as chair expires in May 2026, and the five candidates on the shortlist are Fed governors Chris Waller and Michelle Bowman, former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, NEC Director Kevin Hassett, and BlackRock head of fixed income Rick Rieder.
- The Fed has twice lowered the rate to 0.0% to 0.25%—the first time during the financial crisis of 2008, and the second time in March 2020.
