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Dati al 24 lug 2026, 15:10 UTC · criterio pm-quality-3
Previsione della comunità attualeOil blockade, regime stays 90.5%+1.9ptIn testa tra 4 esiti
Previsori
19
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 3 giorni fa
Obsoleto29 mar 26, 14:5531 dic 26, 23:59
Trend
Solo fondi simulati, nessun denaro realeNon è consulenza finanziaria
Esito scelto
Oil blockade, regime changes7%
Trend del volume
$2023 lug2g di dati24 lug
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Resolution Criteria:
- Oil blockade:
- Defined as a significant disruption in Iranian oil exports compared to pre-blockade.
- Must be effectively imposed, confirmed by either an official U.S. announcement, or by at least two independent major outlets.
- Any of these will count: naval blockade, tanker quarentine or a seizure of Kharg Island, so long as it causes an impact similar to what we saw in Venezuela on quantifiable information (tanker count or export volume in pre blockade vs post blockade week, month or bimester.
- Half order of magnitude basis.