Will Iran and the US reach a formal nuclear deal by September 30, 2026?
US PoliticsGeopoliticaMonthlyMiddle East21gManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 96.7%
Previsori
30
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 50 minuti fa
In ritardo26 mar 26, 08:39 UTC30 set 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
US-Iran nuclear deal?
KalshiWhat will be included in the Iran-US peace deal?
Manifold MarketsUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
PolymarketUS-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026?
PolymarketU.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by which date?
PolymarketWill the Iran Nuclear Deal be revived under Iran's new president Masoud Pezeshkian?
Manifold MarketsRegole
Resolution criteria: Resolves YES if the US and Iran sign or formally announce a binding nuclear agreement (or equivalent framework deal endorsed by both governments) on or before September 30, 2026.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- Source signal: AP News (March 26, 2026): Trump claims Iran is eager to deal while Tehran dismisses his ceasefire plan.
- Both sides hardening positions; Iran grips Strait of Hormuz.
- AP-NORC poll: most Americans say US military action against Iran gone too far.
- Why this matters: A US-Iran nuclear deal would reshape 2026 geopolitics—oil prices, Middle East stability, US foreign policy.
Mercati aperti
US PoliticsPOLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.4pt98%
- $25M+0.8pt95%
- $50M+10.0pt95%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 855,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 683,4K €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.2%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt15.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 183,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIRhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- Helena Foulkes-0.4pt97.1%
- Dan McKee+2.3pt2.9%
- Gregory Stevens0%
- Volume totale
- 620,1K €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 602,9 Mln €
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party-1.0pt84%
- Republican Party16%
- Volume totale
- 24,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 215,2K €
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+2.8pt57.6%
- Benjamin Netanyahu+1.0pt28.3%
- Naftali Bennett-1.0pt7.1%
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- NJ-07 House winner?
- IA-01 House winner?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Iran and the US reach a formal nuclear deal by September 30, 2026??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 97% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Iran and the US reach a formal nuclear deal by September 30, 2026??
- Will Iran and the US reach a formal nuclear deal by September 30, 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 30 settembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Will Iran and the US reach a formal nuclear deal by September 30, 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria: Resolves YES if the US and Iran sign or formally announce a binding nuclear agreement (or equivalent framework deal endorsed by both governments) on or before September 30, 2026.