Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 26 ott 2026, 05:51 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeA (phased) lifting of specific U.S. economic and oil sanctions on Iran. 96.4%In testa tra 10 esiti
Previsori
15
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 3 ore fa
Obsoleto8 apr 26, 00:56 UTC1 gen 27, 01:40 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Iran vs US (props)
Manifold MarketsUkraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
PolymarketUkraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?
PolymarketUS x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31 ? [Not Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsWill Iran sign a peace deal with the middle east countries
Manifold MarketsRussia-Ukraine ceasefire or peace deal to be reached by the end of 2026?
FutuurRegole
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve based on the official outcome of the current diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran regarding a long-term peace agreement, during or after the two-week ceasefire period initiated on April 7, 2026.
- If no peace deal is reached by the end of 2026, the options on what will be included resolve NO.
- As of April 8, 2026, the United States and Iran have entered a two-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistan.
- This pause in military hostilities follows weeks of escalating tensions, during which President Donald Trump issued multiple threats to target Iranian critical infrastructure—specifically bridges and power plants—unless Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and enter into a long-term peace agreement.
- President Trump has characterized the current 10-point proposal from Iran as a "workable basis" for negotiation and has stated that both the U.S. and Iran are "very far along" in drafting a definitive agreement.
