Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 74.5%
Previsori
4
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 7 ore fa
Obsoleto4 mag 26, 20:22 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will TSMC CoWoS capacity exit binding-constraint status before 2026-12-31?
Manifold MarketsWill Princeton international students lose legal status before 2027 (as is seemingly happening at Harvard)?
Manifold MarketsClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
PolymarketWill the Clarity Act become law?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiRegole
Resolves YES if, by 2026-12-31, the High Bandwidth Memory 3e (HBM3e) supply situation has publicly transitioned from "shortage" to "balanced" or "oversupply" per any of the following publicly accessible sources:
- A public statement from a major HBM supplier (SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron) in an earnings call transcript or press release indicating HBM3e supply meets or exceeds demand
- A public report from a research organization (Epoch AI, CSET, Brookings, government statistical agency) indicating HBM3e shortage has cleared
- TrendForce or similar publicly published market-summary data (free-tier reports only — NOT paywalled subscription content) indicating supply ≥ demand
- Source of truth: publicly accessible earnings call transcripts (SEC EDGAR / company IR pages), public press releases, free-tier industry reports.
- Tie-breaker rule: if there are conflicting public statements from different suppliers, the market resolves based on the predominance of public evidence as of 2026-12-31.
Mercati aperti
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volume totale
- 12,5 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 92,5K €
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-2.0pt38%
- Before Oct 1, 2027+3.0pt36%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-5.0pt32%
+7 altri esiti
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,-4.0pt86%
- November 30,-1.5pt84%
+7 altri esiti
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 202797%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+1.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 202794%
+9 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,4 Mln €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T22.1%
- $1.75T–$2.0T21.1%
- $1.5T–$1.75T-4.5pt15.8%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIHow many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
- At least 3+18.0pt87%
- At least 267%
- At least 4+10.0pt54%
+1 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 42,8K €
- Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Weed rescheduled by which date?
- LSU to leave the SEC before 2027?
- Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
- OpenAI’s valuation end of October 2026?
- When will Starlink officially announce an IPO?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will HBM3e supply exit shortage status before 2026-12-31??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 75% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will HBM3e supply exit shortage status before 2026-12-31??
- Will HBM3e supply exit shortage status before 2026-12-31? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Will HBM3e supply exit shortage status before 2026-12-31??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves YES if, by 2026-12-31, the High Bandwidth Memory 3e (HBM3e) supply situation has publicly transitioned from "shortage" to "balanced" or "oversupply" per any of the following publicly accessible sources: